Looking for information on how to estimate lifetime of a Triac

[WilliamMische]

Hi I'm looking for some help in estimating the lifetime of a triac for a customer.

I have thermal models and have performed lab tests to estimate junction temperatures and case temperatures. 

I expect the Junction to reach 115C peak.  The Case to be 100C during peak loads. Ambient temperature is 65C.  So I expect thermal cycle deltas of 50C for every load case.  The loads last 2 minutes and I want to be able to estimate for the customer how many loads they can expect to achieve over the life of the product. 

 

The triac is:  T1620T-8I

The only analysis I have seen is the following:

(PDF) A Coffin-Manson model to predict the TRIAC solder joints fatigue during power cycling (researchgate.net)

 

Can anyone at ST help me out?