That's a tough question. The VL53L1X has a lens on the receive side, so one can limit the Region of Interest to about 5 degrees.
At 30cm and 5 degrees, the target would be about 2.6cm in diameter. So we are getting close. But all the photons received in this area are averaged together. Thus your target would be influenced by the wall behind it.
But if you used the VL53L1CB, we use a different detection mechanism. With this a target can be isolated if there are no other targets with 80cm of separation.
So a target at 30cm could be separated from a wall at a bit over 1M.
Combined with the Region of Interest, it might work.
If you could make your target especially reflective, and your background very dull, the influence of the background would be very small.
With 20million photons from the target, <0.5M photons from the wall behind would average to give you a reasonable accurate answer.
- john